1,000 people listen to Hobsbawm debating the Treaty of Versailles with Niall Ferguson

Eric Hobsbawm, the renowned historian with comprehensive knowledge and analytical understanding of 20th-century European history, is old and frail, but has been a regular at the Hay Festival since its inception. This year he faces the younger historian and Harvard professor Niall Ferguson to discuss the Treaty of Versailles. It was signed in 1919, 90 years ago. The two scholars agree that the Treaty of Versailles sowed the seeds not only of the Second World War, but also of the many community conflicts within and outside Europe. The Wilson doctrine supporting self-determination for each territorially delineated ethnic group led to the re-drawing of borders and the creation of contested territories and borders throughout Europe. This happened against the backdrop of the fear of communism and the ongoing processes of the collapse of empires (British, Habsburg etc.). The main failure of Versailles was to exclude both Russia and Germany from the peace-making process. On its own, Versailles would not, however, have led to the Second World War. The subsequent economic depression (brought about, in part, but not solely, by the reparation payments imposed on Germany) contributed to the crisis in conjunction with the failures of the welfare state. Would the situation have been worse or better had Germany won the First World War I? Hobsbawm does not find the question interesting. But Ferguson is of the contrary opinion and points out that he has written a book on the subject. Working with counterfactuals is an interesting historical method and allows insights which would otherwise not be possible. One member of the audience wants to know what the two historians would have done, had they been parties to the Versailles Treaty. Ferguson says the Allies should have been harsher on Germany and gone so far as to invade it and make sure it met its commitments. Eric Hobsbawm says he would have restrained French demands and skipped Wilson’s 14 points – made ahead of the conference in Versailles. Had Hitler been killed during the First World War, would that have made a difference, another participant wants to know. Both historians agree that this might have prevented the Holocaust.